Recent movements in the financial markets suggest that we might possibly test the November lows if several important trendlines and support levels are broken. Again, I would like to reiterate that I do not incorporate any news or fundamental analysis in my analysis; it is strictly technical. However, I do not disregard them completely because news does tend to move markets (in an irrational and unpredictable fashion).
This week is the start of the (lack of) earnings season, options expiration Friday, January 16th and President-elect Barack Obama’s inauguration next Tuesday, January 20th. Expect an increase in volatility until then as the markets try and find support or completely breakdown.
I have several charts which show important trendlines and support levels which each indice must hold onto in order to prevent the same breadth of selling we saw in November.

A break below 8350-8400 will send the Dow Jones to at least the 8000-8100 level. If that 8000 level is broken, look out below! Relative strength turned bearish as it crossed the 50 level and stochastics show that this current weakness is not yet over. The Dow Jones [Big Cap/Blue Chips] is the weakest index compared to the NASDAQ [Tech], S&P 500 [Mid Caps], and the Russell 2000 [Small Caps].

The Russell 2000 is one of the stronger indexes (mainly because of the January Effect). A bearish flag was confirmed as the uptrend line was broken and the 440-460 levels are the next short-term targets. MACD crossed over bearishly and will cross the 0 line while stochastics also show there is more room to the downside.
The reason why I (and many others) look at the R2K is because of the TNA and TZA 3x leveraged ETFs. While risky, these exchange-traded funds can create or destroy wealth in almost a blink of an eye.

Oil’s longer-term trends are obviously down, but the recent conflict in Gaza has sent Oil up a good amount in the short-term (nearly 50%) but it has nearly given up all of those gains. Oil seems to be building a bottom for now. A break above $40.00 on the USO will put Oil into a short/intermediate uptrend while a break below $27.73 will confirm another leg down for Oil. Keep in mind that if oil goes down, it tends to drag XOM (Exxon-Mobil) and CVX (Chevron) down which will also drag down the Dow (points-wise). I definitely wouldn’t mind $1.75/gal premium for gasoline though!

The financials (and REITs) are the weakest sectors and has been crippling the markets. The XLF crossed below its important $11.50 support level within the first 10 minutes of trading and saw relentless selling until the end of the day. I participated by buying the FAZ (3x inverse financials ETF) which gained 17% (3x financials ETF) today while the FAS lost 17% today. C (Citigroup) and BAC (Bank of America) sold off extremely hard and on massive volume as it broke support and is almost flirting with its November lows.
Odds do not favor the bullish case at this moment as there is nothing I see other than “hoping” that the markets turn around. The path of least resistance is lower as price-action indicates and the news coming out do not support the bulls. The “Santa Claus” rally is quickly losing all of its gains, but keep in mind that on election-years, the markets have historically risen until the new president-elect’s inauguration day.
If one were to go long however (for a counter-trend/contrarian trade), I would suggest placing a stop order at or a little below the support levels I drew if your trade moves against you to limit your losses.








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